Seth Godin has thrown down the IPhone challenge. With speculation running rampant, everyone has their two cents on whether the IPhone will fail, meet or exceed expectations.
Great time to point out how cool and powerful the blog world is when i get to voice my opinions and guesstimates along side some of the best in the world...so here goes it...
I am going to agree with Seth on this one. He quotes Laura in his article and showcases her opinion of the phone fading into the all-in-one technology abyss. Though the argument may have some legs, her example of Steve Jobs moving to another project thus leaving the phone to fizzle seems a bit skewed. Steve is not dealing with the IPod on a daily basis and it seems to break new barriers every year.
All in all, whether it sells 2 million or 10 million it will forever change the face of the cell phone industry. Look at the MP3 market. Sure the market existed pre-IPod, but not to the extent we find today. Back then it was a few choices from a few manufacturers and they were being built on the company's terms not the users.
The competition to beat the IPod has created cheaper alternatives, new features, and new form factors. The IPhone will do the same. Will the entire cell-using world change? NO WAY. Will the entire world benefit? MOST DEFINITELY!
So my guess is 1.7 million in 2007 (I expect Nintendo Wii problems with shipping and distribution). The only variable is the carrier deal with Cingular/AT&T - they do not have the best track record at making customers stay. Maybe our next challenge/pool should be everyone making their picks on whether a neat piece of high technology is enough to overcome a customer's displeasure for a carrier brand. Place your bets...feel free to TrackBack your opinions here as well.